The Recruiting Odds Database
What does the college recruiting landscape actually look like?
The NCAA publishes high-school-to-college participation rates — but they're buried in PDFs. We pulled them out, cross-referenced the 2025 House settlement roster caps, and added a parent-readable read of the landscape for each of the 12 sports we cover. These figures describe the field. They do not tell a family where their athlete stands. That's what the Reality Report is for.
Tennis
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 4.3%
- Men → D1
- 1.5%
- Women → D1
- 1.4%
Soccer
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 6.5%
- Men → D1
- 1.3%
- Women → D1
- 2.4%
Lacrosse
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 12.9%
- Men → D1
- 2.9%
- Women → D1
- 3.8%
Baseball
- HS → NCAA
- 7.8%
- Men → D1
- 2.4%
Softball
- HS → NCAA
- 5.8%
- Women → D1
- 1.8%
Volleyball
- HS → NCAA
- 4%
- Women → D1
- 1.3%
Football
- HS → NCAA
- 7.1%
- Men → D1
- 2.9%
Basketball
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 3.8%
- Men → D1
- 1%
- Women → D1
- 1.3%
Golf
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 5.9%
- Men → D1
- 1.8%
- Women → D1
- 2.7%
Swimming
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 9%
- Men → D1
- 3.3%
- Women → D1
- 4.2%
Track & Field
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 5.5%
- Men → D1
- 2%
- Women → D1
- 2.6%
Wrestling
- HS → NCAA
- 3%
- Men → D1
- 0.9%
Percentages on each card are NCAA population rates (2024–25), not this athlete's recruiting probability.
What the aggregate numbers actually say
D1 is rarer than parents think
Across the 12 sports we cover, the average HS-to-D1 population rate is ~2%. That includes lacrosse (highest, ~3–4%) and basketball (lowest, ~1%). For most sports, the majority of college roster spots sit at D2, D3, and NAIA — not D1.
D3 is not a downgrade
D3 schools offer no athletic scholarships, but academic and need-based aid at competitive D3 programs (NESCAC, Centennial, UAA) routinely beats a 25–40% D1 partial scholarship in net cost to the family.
The House settlement changed the math
Effective July 1 2025, D1 programs that opted into the House settlement operate under roster caps instead of sport-specific scholarship caps. The defendant power conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12) are bound automatically; opt-in is optional for the rest of D1. Non-opted-in D1 programs still run the old Bylaw 15 limits. Practical effect at opted-in schools: fewer walk-on spots, more aid dollars per rostered player. Athletes above the cap are grandfathered for the duration of their eligibility, so some rosters will look larger than the cap number.
Scholarship offers ≠ free ride
Outside of the sports that were D1 headcount in 2024–25 (football FBS, men's & women's basketball, women's volleyball, women's tennis), most D1 athletic offers are partial — typically 25–50% of cost-of-attendance.
Where does your athlete currently stand?
This page is the landscape. Prospecta's free Reality Report is a 0–100 standing of the profile you enter — not an athlete-specific probability of reaching a division.