The Recruiting Odds Database
What are the real odds your kid plays college sports?
Every recruiting service tells parents what they want to hear. The NCAA publishes the actual data — but it's buried in PDFs nobody reads. We pulled it out, cross-referenced it with the 2025 House settlement roster caps, and added the honest parent-readable interpretation for each of the 12 sports we cover.
Tennis
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 4.3%
- Men → D1
- 1.5%
- Women → D1
- 1.4%
Soccer
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 6.5%
- Men → D1
- 1.3%
- Women → D1
- 2.4%
Lacrosse
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 12.9%
- Men → D1
- 2.9%
- Women → D1
- 3.8%
Baseball
- HS → NCAA
- 7.8%
- Men → D1
- 2.4%
Softball
- HS → NCAA
- 5.8%
- Women → D1
- 1.8%
Volleyball
- HS → NCAA
- 4%
- Women → D1
- 1.3%
Football
- HS → NCAA
- 7.1%
- Men → D1
- 2.9%
Basketball
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 3.8%
- Men → D1
- 1%
- Women → D1
- 1.3%
Golf
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 5.9%
- Men → D1
- 1.8%
- Women → D1
- 2.7%
Swimming
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 9%
- Men → D1
- 3.3%
- Women → D1
- 4.2%
Track & Field
- HS → NCAA (combined)
- 5.5%
- Men → D1
- 2%
- Women → D1
- 2.6%
Wrestling
- HS → NCAA
- 3%
- Men → D1
- 0.9%
What the aggregate numbers actually say
D1 is rarer than parents think
Across the 12 sports we cover, the average HS-to-D1 conversion is ~2%. That includes lacrosse (highest, ~3–4%) and basketball (lowest, ~1%). For most parents, the actual recruiting opportunity is D2, D3, and NAIA — not D1.
D3 is not a downgrade
D3 schools offer no athletic scholarships, but academic and need-based aid at competitive D3 programs (NESCAC, Centennial, UAA) routinely beats a 25–40% D1 partial scholarship in net cost to the family.
The House settlement changed the math
Effective July 1 2025, D1 programs that opted into the House settlement operate under roster caps instead of sport-specific scholarship caps. The defendant power conferences (SEC, Big Ten, ACC, Big 12, Pac-12) are bound automatically; opt-in is optional for the rest of D1. Non-opted-in D1 programs still run the old Bylaw 15 limits. Practical effect at opted-in schools: fewer walk-on spots, more aid dollars per rostered player. Athletes above the cap are grandfathered for the duration of their eligibility, so some rosters will look larger than the cap number.
Scholarship offers ≠ free ride
Outside of the sports that were D1 headcount in 2024–25 (football FBS, men's & women's basketball, women's volleyball, women's tennis), most D1 athletic offers are partial — typically 25–50% of cost-of-attendance.
Where does your athlete actually fit?
Knowing the distribution is one thing. Knowing where your kid lands inside it is what matters. The free Prospecta assessment gives you an honest division placement in about 6 minutes.